{
 "fires": 33061,
 "quakes": 735,
 "shifts_days": [
  -28,
  -21,
  -14,
  -7,
  7,
  14,
  21,
  28
 ],
 "design": "case-crossover, same-location season-matched time-shift controls",
 "strata": [
  {
   "Mmin": 2.5,
   "R_km": 10,
   "dt_h": 24,
   "n_quakes": 735,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 65,
   "case_fires": 27,
   "expected_fires": 57.12,
   "rate_ratio": 0.473
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 2.5,
   "R_km": 10,
   "dt_h": 72,
   "n_quakes": 735,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 116,
   "case_fires": 187,
   "expected_fires": 221.5,
   "rate_ratio": 0.844
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 2.5,
   "R_km": 20,
   "dt_h": 24,
   "n_quakes": 735,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 119,
   "case_fires": 91,
   "expected_fires": 173.75,
   "rate_ratio": 0.524
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 2.5,
   "R_km": 20,
   "dt_h": 72,
   "n_quakes": 735,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 168,
   "case_fires": 549,
   "expected_fires": 550.5,
   "rate_ratio": 0.997
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 3.0,
   "R_km": 10,
   "dt_h": 24,
   "n_quakes": 217,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 19,
   "case_fires": 4,
   "expected_fires": 14.0,
   "rate_ratio": 0.286
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 3.0,
   "R_km": 10,
   "dt_h": 72,
   "n_quakes": 217,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 35,
   "case_fires": 85,
   "expected_fires": 50.12,
   "rate_ratio": 1.696
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 3.0,
   "R_km": 20,
   "dt_h": 24,
   "n_quakes": 217,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 31,
   "case_fires": 13,
   "expected_fires": 44.25,
   "rate_ratio": 0.294
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 3.0,
   "R_km": 20,
   "dt_h": 72,
   "n_quakes": 217,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 47,
   "case_fires": 199,
   "expected_fires": 147.62,
   "rate_ratio": 1.348
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 3.5,
   "R_km": 10,
   "dt_h": 24,
   "n_quakes": 66,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 3,
   "case_fires": 0,
   "expected_fires": 1.0,
   "rate_ratio": null
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 3.5,
   "R_km": 10,
   "dt_h": 72,
   "n_quakes": 66,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 8,
   "case_fires": 3,
   "expected_fires": 6.5,
   "rate_ratio": 0.462
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 3.5,
   "R_km": 20,
   "dt_h": 24,
   "n_quakes": 66,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 7,
   "case_fires": 0,
   "expected_fires": 6.62,
   "rate_ratio": null
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 3.5,
   "R_km": 20,
   "dt_h": 72,
   "n_quakes": 66,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 12,
   "case_fires": 7,
   "expected_fires": 28.12,
   "rate_ratio": 0.249
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 4.0,
   "R_km": 10,
   "dt_h": 24,
   "n_quakes": 17,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 1,
   "case_fires": 0,
   "expected_fires": 0.25,
   "rate_ratio": null
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 4.0,
   "R_km": 10,
   "dt_h": 72,
   "n_quakes": 17,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 2,
   "case_fires": 0,
   "expected_fires": 1.12,
   "rate_ratio": null
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 4.0,
   "R_km": 20,
   "dt_h": 24,
   "n_quakes": 17,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 2,
   "case_fires": 0,
   "expected_fires": 3.12,
   "rate_ratio": null
  },
  {
   "Mmin": 4.0,
   "R_km": 20,
   "dt_h": 72,
   "n_quakes": 17,
   "quakes_with_any_fire": 3,
   "case_fires": 0,
   "expected_fires": 7.0,
   "rate_ratio": null
  }
 ],
 "headline": {
  "Mmin": 3.0,
  "R_km": 20,
  "dt_h": 72,
  "n_quakes": 217,
  "quakes_with_any_fire": 47,
  "case_fires": 199,
  "expected_fires": 147.62,
  "rate_ratio": 1.348
 },
 "placebo_+100d": {
  "Mmin": 3.0,
  "R_km": 20,
  "dt_h": 72,
  "n_quakes": 217,
  "quakes_with_any_fire": 42,
  "case_fires": 189,
  "expected_fires": 286.0,
  "rate_ratio": 0.661
 },
 "null_distribution": {
  "n": 25,
  "mean": 1.037,
  "sd": 0.384,
  "min": 0.486,
  "max": 1.764,
  "pct2.5": 0.535,
  "pct97.5": 1.739
 },
 "headline_vs_null_z": 0.81,
 "verdict": "NO credible cascading earthquake->wildfire signal in Sicily: rate ratio is non-monotonic in magnitude, M>=4 quakes produce zero post-event fires, 24h windows run below baseline, and the observed headline RR sits inside the permutation-null spread."
}